As of 10,30 PM EDT, Friday November 6, 2020, former Vice President Joe Biden has become the President-Elect of the United States of America and will be the 46th President. After several days of counting ballots from key states like Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona with Biden leading in Nevada and Arizona, and catching up with President Trump in Georgia and Pennsylvania then overtaking him as more votes are counted https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president.
We have called Pennsylvania for Biden because of the math. The rate of the mail-in ballot shows Biden outperforming Trump anywhere from a 70% / 30% ratio to a 90% / 10% ratio. On the provisional ballots which is assumed at 100K, a significant number of them are from heavy democratic areas. So if we assume a 50/50 split and Trump wins 60% of half of the provisional ballots (using a higher rate than he had for the in person votes), he would be adding approximately 50K (30K + 20K) votes. At the moment Biden has a 27K vote lead and at the rate of acquisition of the mail-in votes, he is poised to rake in another 80K plus votes of what is left (125K at this point), putting him well over a 100K additional votes. In addition, he could win another 70% of his half of the provisional ballots which would bring in another 35K votes in addition to the 20K from the Trump half, This would give Biden about 155K votes and Trump about 80K votes. Resulting in a 75K vote gap in Biden’s favor, which would be insurmountable. In another scenario, assuming all the provisional ballots favor Trump in the 60%/40% ratio. It would improve Trump’s numbers by 15K votes and degrade Biden’s by the same. Putting Trump at 95K and Biden at 140K., putting the gap at 45K votes in Biden’s favor. This leads us to the conclusion that there is no mathematical pathway for Trump to catch up, let alone overtake Biden in Pennsylvania.
The days leading up to this were eventful but largely under control. The president made numerous false and schizophrenic claims about fraud, in some cases demanding that vote counting cease and in others that they be counted.
One iconic occurrence was the MAGA Trump group surrounding vote counters in Detroit Michigan, banging on windows, chanting “stop the count”, spewing accusations and hurling intimidating verbal assaults at the vote counters, who resolutely focused on the job before them. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8914941/Count-Vote-protesters-try-force-way-Detroit-mail-ballot-counting-center.html
The real hero of American democracy is mail-in votes because it prevented all those hackers (Russian) from getting into the electronic systems. It also showcased the robustness and the many facets of the electoral process. The same process that shockingly ushered in Mr Trump, and the same one he refuses to respect once it does not favor him. When the people’s votes are counted and unavailable to hacking, the data tend to align with the math and America is the better for it!
The slew of lawsuits (some thrown out almost immediately by the states as frivolous and baseless) filed by Trump’s campaign from Michigan to Arizona to Pennsylvania to Georgia are unprecedented and mired with incoherent, unsubstantiated and downright false accusations of election fraud, lack of transparency and unfairness. Even though, in a state like Georgia the top election official and secretary of state Brad Raffensperger is a Republican and Trump supporter. In all states, republican and democrat observers are in the counting rooms and counting could be observed literally through glass panes. In Philadelphia more Trump campaign observers were allowed in the room within 6 feet of vote counters for even closer observation. https://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2020/11/05/philadelphia-court-decision-poll-watchers-now-allowed-within-6-feet-of-ballot-counting-at-pennsylvania-convention-center/
What is a shame is that for the first time since 1797, the US tinkers on the brink of a challenge in the peaceful transition of power, when the outgoing president Donald Trump, refuses to accept the people’s voice and graciously concede to president-elect Joe Biden. The bigger learning is that as voters, we must realize that we are responsible for placing the mandate of leadership in the hands of a citizen. Before we do that, we must evaluate that citizen to be sure that, he or she has the competence to understand that a democracy is not a dictatorship.
Tonight, with the 270 milestone crossed and the possibility of up to 306 Electoral Votes in the Biden camp, Joe Biden makes history by garnering the most votes of any presidential candidate in the history of the United States, beating out President Obama’s record. President-elect, Biden will also be the oldest person elected as president in the US. Biden also made history, prevailing with dignity in an election cycle fraught with disrespect, disregard for rules or laws, flagrant lies, mischiefs and misadventures led by the sitting President himself. Perhaps one of the most significant milestones in this election cycle and this win, is that in Kamala Harris, we have America’s first woman vice-president, a woman of color, black and Indian to boot! https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/06/us/trump-biden
One quote that captures the sentiments of those who voted against the president and for Joe Biden sums it all “Trump cannot callously contribute to the deaths of more than 230k Americans and expect to be handed the keys to the people’s lives again“
Tonight, we say well done Joe and congratulations Mr. President! Come over to the Whitehouse and help us!